МТСНГ $1,5 Knockout. Топ пара + натс флешдро против пуша

Статистика на соперника (VPIP/PFR/3-bet/FoldTo3bet/фактор агрессии/WTSD%/WWSF%):
25/8/20,0/-/1,0/67/67 (12 рук)

Что делать на флопе?

Poker Stars, $1.35 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 1,620 (81 bb)
BB: 1,740 (87 bb)
UTG+1: 3,110 (155.5 bb)
UTG+2: 2,940 (147 bb)
MP1: 1,450 (72.5 bb)
Hero (MP2): 1,470 (73.5 bb)
MP3: 1,390 (69.5 bb)
CO: 40 (2 bb)
BTN: 1,380 (69 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5 A
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls 20, MP1 calls 20, Hero calls 20, 5 folds

Flop: (90) A J Q (3 players)
UTG+2 bets 1,160, MP1 folds, Hero raises to 1,450 and is all-in, UTG+2 calls 290

Turn: (2,990) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (2,990) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results:

 Spoiler

2,990 pot
Final Board: A J Q Q 2
UTG+2 showed T K and won 2,990 (1,520 net)
MP1 mucked and lost (-20 net)
Hero showed 5 A and lost (-1,470 net)

Фолдим. Простая раздача, для подсчета в калькуляторе. У нас тут не больше 45-47%.